Five Years Since MSPs Saved the World
The world we knew was about to radically change. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic1. With jarring speed, our entertainment, sports, business, community, worship, and family lives changed in unimaginable ways in an attempt to quell the spread of COVID-19, impacting most forms of human activity around the world.
Here are highlights of how COVID impacted just the world of sports that week:At this time, no one knew what to expect or how long it would last.
One thing was certain - managed service providers (MSPs) were about to play a pivotal role in saving the world. While largely unrecognized, they were about to embark on the role of a lifetime - helping small and midsize businesses (SMBs) adjust, withstand, and then rebound from the effects of COVID and the lockdowns.
MSPs were deeply impacted in ways no one could have foreseen. They were experiencing the same anxiety, uncertainty, and risk in their own lives and businesses. They were on the front lines, keeping businesses in business and were deemed by most governments as essential workers. At the beginning of the pandemic, most SMBs were woefully unprepared for a disaster of this magnitude, it is estimated that only 6-12% of SMBs with employees were capable of working from home.
Without the luxury of time to develop and implement strategic plans to prepare for an event of this magnitude, MSPs hurried to address the challenge of enabling tens of millions of their clients' workers to work from home in rapid succession. This included issuing new laptops, getting them connected and set up with VPN solutions to allow access.
To complicate matters, supply chain constraints meant laptops and other essential hardware were in short supply, forcing MSPs to make do with available resources to ensure employees could continue working.
In addition, MSP owners and employees were experiencing the same anxiety, uncertainty, and risk in their own lives and businesses.
This transition also brought about:This massive effort, conducted simultaneously by thousands of MSPs globally, enabled their clients to transition from in-office to work from home, allowing millions of businesses and their employees to maintain their economic stability amidst extraordinary personal and professional challenges compounded by continued uncertainty.
The impact on our industry was substantial, including, for example, dramatic growth in cloud adoption. In Q2-2020, MSPs cloud resale was 44.2% higher than in Q1-2019.
By May 2021, the impact of what MSPs had accomplished was able to be seen in the Service Leadership Index® (S-LI) data, shown in the Service Leadership Index® 2021 Annual IT Solution Provider Industry Profitability Report™:
Figure 1: MSP workload to “airlift” customers' employees to work from home
At the time, we used the phrase, “Echoes of Dunkirk and the Berlin Airlift” to describe the scale and the benefit of this massively successful effort by the MSP community worldwide to make sure their clients' business infrastructure continued to operate. Five years later, this does not seem like hyperbole.
Meanwhile, the MSPs themselves were facing their own challenges:These remarkable external factors meant many MSP owners and executives felt tremendous stress. The demand on their interpersonal and management skills ramped steeply and, reaching deep, they responded extraordinarily well.
By April 2020, Service Leadership and IT Nation Evolve peer groups were providing Rapid Recovery guidance and tools to help member MSPs navigate these challenges. Quarterly meetings and ad hoc gatherings continued remotely, and the familiar pulse of quarterly benchmarking provided insight and reassurance of continued industry viability.
Thankfully, and not without tragic personal and professional damage, the MSP industry, the IT industry as a whole and the global community they helped, survived and begun to thrive again. Reminders of the dark times of 2020 and 2021 abound: Mask-wearing is still evident, as are hand-sanitizing stations, and occasionally, even signs and stickers advising six-foot distancing, and high costs still lingering from inflation. We are all grateful to be, five years later, in better times. Yet we know the future always holds challenges, so we will be well-served to remember what we have learned and be prepared for whatever the next significant disaster might present itself as.
Given the degree of disruption caused by COVID, it's remarkable that MSPs were not impacted more financially than they were. That isn't to say there weren't any challenges or tragedy, or that they aren't dealing still with the consequence.
Let's better understand what happened, so we can manage even better when we are faced with disruption again.
Figure 2: Adjusted EBITDA % by profit quartile
Figure 2 shows the adjusted EBITDA percent for four groups of MSPs: the average MSP, and those in the top quartile, median, and bottom quartile of profitability.
Though the official COVID-19 recession technically lasted only two months, the top quartile profitability MSPs (best-in-class or BIC) showed the same response as their BIC peers in past recessions: Their profit improvement appears sooner and is more pronounced than their lower-performing peers. Being at higher Operational Maturity Level™ (OML™), they have more accurate and timely financial reporting, they make better decisions, which are executed more quickly and effectively. The BIC also tend to make bolder decisions - such as to cut expenses more quickly and deeply. Their profitability since then has not fallen below the level of the four years preceding COVID. Those MSPs at lower OML more often responded less effectively: the median did continue to climb though, while the bottom ¼ unfortunately took four years to recover.
For year-over-year revenue growth, we look at the private equity (PE)-backed MSPs separately from those who are not so sponsored. The PE-backed MSPs are typically more aggressive about growth through acquisitions. As such, their revenue growth typically includes a higher percentage of non-organic revenue growth. Despite a slowing of M&A activity in 2020 having the effect of leveling the pace of revenue growth between PE and non-PE, the non-PE backed data gives us the most accurate picture of revenue growth.
In Figure 3, the blue line shows the year-over-year total revenue growth of the PE-backed MSPs. While their growth slowed in 2020 to “only” 31.9% over 2019, it regained speed in 2021 with 34.8% growth over 2020. Since then, their growth rate has declined. In 2024, it slowed to match that of the non-PE-backed MSPs at under 8% over the previous year.
Figure 3: Year/year growth of total revenue for MSPs
While there were some mergers and acquisitions in 2023 and/or 2024, the fact is that in 2024 the PE-backed matched the slow growth of the non-PE-backed, indicating both are struggling to improve organic growth. Given the continued upward cost pressures, revenue growth of only 8% is a cause for concern; the organic growth challenge must be overcome.
The largest factor in revenue growth for most MSPs is the increase in managed service revenue, which is typically around 45% of total revenue. The revenue trends described above match the direction in Figure 4 below, which provides the most recent 4 quarters (MR4Q) of managed service revenue growth every quarter from 2018-2024 for non-PE-backed MSPs and PE-backed MSPs.
Figure 4: Non-PE-backed and PE-backed managed service revenue growth MR4Q
To what extent has work from home impacted the MSPs' staffing strategy, and to what extent does it continue?
Figure 5: Occupancy expense dollar as percent of SG&A expense dollar
Figure 5 shows the proportion of overhead expense as percentage of sales, general & administrative (SG&A) dollars that went towards occupancy expense (lease or rent) starting in 2020. The year COVID struck, the BIC profitability MSPs were spending a higher proportion of their SG&A on occupancy than their lower profit peers. Five years later, they are spending the least.
While the BIC were spending the least on SG&A, their comparison to the median and bottom ¼ (Figure 6) showed they had:In addition, the BIC were more ruthless at reducing or eliminating office space when they have employees working from home. They were better positioned to do this because they are also better at managing staff with key performance indicators (KPIs) tied to higher percentages of variable incentive compensation. Greater usage of variable incentive compensation along with KPIs such as W2 Multiplier (Service Leadership management ratio comparing service revenue to service-related wages) are tools that higher OML IT solution providers (TSPs) utilize to drive greater accountability on what matters rather than blindly having the expectation that being in the office leads to more productivity (and profitability).
Figure 6: Remote work arrangement by profitability (MSPs)
Lastly, we can look at the changes in client technology strategy over the five years.
Figure 7: Cloud resale revenue for every $1.00 of non-recurring product resale
Figure 7 shows the amount of cloud resale revenue sold by MSPs for every dollar of traditional, non-recurring product resale. At first glance, it appears the bottom ¼ profitability MSPs have been the most aggressive about replacing non-recurring product with recurring product. In reality, they have accomplished this by reducing their volume of traditional product sales, while their more profitable peers continue to grow both types of product revenue. In fact, the BIC MSPs have been quickly growing both: over the five years, they grew cloud resale revenue at 36.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and traditional resale at 20.8% CAGR.
The latter is almost as fast as the median profitability MSPs have been growing their cloud resale revenue! The abrupt shift to the cloud triggered by COVID work from home and cybersecurity concerns has continue to accelerate, but only the bottom ¼ profitability MSPs have found it to mean shrinking the traditional product business.
This section provides specific actions all TSPs can take to withstand and even thrive in the face of unforeseen external challenges to your business. We'll skip past the obviously valid actions like attaining and sustaining a high OML - at least 3.8 or higher based on sober reassessment on a regular basis.
Instead, we'll focus on those actions and preparations which specifically provide safety and leverage when major disruptions occur.
To the extent that it's possible, it's helpful to understand the scale and potential duration of the disruption. Let's take a quick look at the types of disruptions and what we can conclude from each, in terms of keeping your TSP businesses healthy and able to respond during them.
Thankfully, disruptions on a global scale happen very infrequently: world wars and pandemics are most often the regrettable causes. These disrupt lives and livelihoods with little regard for borders and beliefs.
Often, such events sadly have durations (including their aftermath), of periods measured in years. These could hold a lack of human capital, or of infrastructure, or of conducive financial conditions. This is important to assess for planning purposes.
As we have seen in the last five years, the IT community is impacted by such global events and is also essential to the surviving of and recovery from them.
One step down from the level of global physical disruptions are global or national economic disruptions, by which we mean financial recessions or depressions.
These are most quickly evidenced by changes in the stock markets, which are caused by, and also cause other dislocations in business profitability and employment, which have further ripple effects.
In the US, the recession track record since 1980 has been:
Figure 8: Official US recessions since 1980 with Great Depression for comparison
These are obviously material impacts. While all six recessions pale in comparison to the Great Depression, it is worth noting that the Great Recession was materially more dire than the average since 1980. It's also worth noting that, from a business survival point of view, it doesn't matter what the source or cause of the recession is, just that they do happen.
Recessions in the US do not always coincide with or cause recessions in other advanced economies, nor vice versa. For example, two closely intertwined neighboring economies - Canada and the US - often experience downturns or upturns not in sync with each other. Thus, even a severe recession, as much as its impact is felt in one economic zone, does not necessarily result in global disruption.
Thankfully, the duration of these, as noted above, tends to be measured in months not years, meaning that the well-planned TSP can usually count on light being at the end of a shorter tunnel than during the global physical disruptions.
There are non-physical and financial disruptions that can materially impact TSPs, typically at a national level, including: regulatory changes, broad-based cyber-attacks, and significant advancements or changes to the technology landscape. All of these can be best managed by following the steps outlined in the upcoming Optimizing Your Resiliency and Agility sections.
We'll also discuss this in actionable detail in the Optimizing Your Resiliency and Agility sections which follow, but suffice to say here, in a typical recession, TSPs of all business models typically suffer during economic downturns.
Those TSPs whose business model is based on customers investing capital into technology, are obviously impacted by economic downturns, because customers typically constrain capital spending at those times. These TSPs are in the product-centric2, infrastructure project-centric and the applications project-centric business models.
Usually, as the recession ebbs, clients rush to invest capital, and these same TSPs - if they have survived - experience a return to growth and profitability.
Those TSPs who are instead focused on the client's operating expense budget, sometimes mistakenly think their recurring revenue model protects them from economic downturns.
The Optimizing Your Resiliency and Agility sections goes into the details needed for planning, but here we simply note, monthly recurring revenue (MRR)-based TSPs such as MSPs and cloud service providers, typically do experience material drops in revenue in recessions. Shrinking MRR can be attributed to clients' headcount shrinking, requests for discounts or reduced service levels. Some clients go out of business.
For TSPs of all business models, there are potential revenue upsides during recessions, too, as we will cover in the Optimizing Your Resiliency and Agility sections. However, while they help, the general trend is toward significant financial and operational pressure.
While the COVID-19 pandemic was global, its short financial downturn combined with its jarring shift to work from home some ways resembled past regional/local disruptions.
Perhaps as/or more often, the disruptions which impact the livelihoods of TSPs and their clients, are even more local, that is, at the state/province level or smaller regions.
We're speaking now of (usually) natural disasters, such as hurricanes, snowstorms, earthquakes, wildfires, and similar occurrences which can knock out power, impede travel and supply, and cripple a local or regional economy.
While they impact a smaller area than the grievous pandemic and war scenarios we discussed earlier, such regional/local disruptions are no less difficult for those TSPs and clients in the affected areas. How are the TSPs in these areas impacted financially?
Thankfully, the S-LI has a large benchmark population, and in 2018 we were able to analyze how TSPs in the regions impacted in Q3 2017 by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma performed financially versus those not in the hurricane-impacted areas.
Interestingly, compared to the TSPs in the unaffected areas, those in the hurricane-impacted areas:This was without any large-scale emergency government financial aid to businesses.
There were clear reasons for their better financial performance in the face of these regional disasters:They were not without financial challenges: their SG&A dollar expenditures soared in Q4-2017, due to their own recovery costs. Thankfully, their gross margin production also increased in Q4, resulting in improved profitability.
The good news is that these local/regional disruptions, while severe, are typically shorter lived: 3 to 18 months is a prudent planning horizon.
As we have seen, historically, those TSPs at higher OML have done better during and after disruptions than those at lower OML. Again, to get to the best position and stay there, SLIQ™ 3 can be a continuing part of your planning and improvement regime.
However, in the face of the types of disruptions we have been discussing, there are specific steps that high performers take which optimize their financial strength and agility.
Step-by-step instructions for these were provided in the Service Leadership Rapid Recovery Planning Guide provided to the community during the last three quarters of 2020. They are equally relevant in future disruptions. We'll summarize those steps here and refer you to the Financial Resiliency Guide in the Resources section for your deep dive:
Together, these steps will help ensure that your company has financial strength, stability and agility during a time when your customers, employees, vendors, and your family and theirs can benefit from it.
Protecting your financial strength as described in the preceding section is critical: strength of strategy and culture do not help if you're closing the doors.
Given that you will have now followed the instructions above and are financially positioned to remain in business, additional actions must be taken to produce your stoutest resilience and ability to survive.In many ways, the COVID-19 pandemic was a watershed event, after which it seems much has not been the same. And yet, much progress has been and continues to be made. The TSP community, especially MSPs, has played an enormous, if largely unsung role around the world, in making sure millions of livelihoods were possible to maintain.
While all TSPs played a role, it's clear that some were in a safer and better position to help sooner and more.
With this newsletter, S-LI, and SLIQ along with the TSP community such as Service Leadership and IT Nation Evolve peer groups, you have the resources, tools, and guidance to be safer, set the example, and take the lead when the next call comes.
Financial Resiliency Guide
Service Leadership and IT Nation Evolve Peer Groups
Service Leadership Index
SLIQ
Service Leadership Inc.®, a ConnectWise company is dedicated to providing total profit solutions for IT solution providers, directly and through industry consultants and global technology vendors. The company publishes the leading vendor-neutral, IT solution provider financial and operational benchmark: Service Leadership Index®. This includes private diagnostic benchmarks for individual IT solution providers and their business coaches and consultants. The company also publishes SLIQ™, the exclusive web application for owners and executives to drive financial improvements by confidentially assessing and driving their Operational Maturity Level™.
Service Leadership offers advanced peer groups for IT solution providers of all sizes and business models, as well as executive and industry best practices education and speaking.
For more information, please visit www.service-leadership.com.
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1 “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic” World Health Organization
2 Product-centric also known as value-added reseller (VAR).
3 SLIQ: Service Leadership's cloud-based OML progression tool that guides TSP executives to attain best-in-class performance. Learn more here.
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